Military, intelligence, and industry officials are nearly universal in their praise for unmanned systems (UxS). These systems have been used extensively in the conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan, and will continue to be equally relevant – if not more so – as the United States’ strategy shifts towards the Asia-Pacific region and the high-end warfare this strategy requires. Indeed, UxS are already creating strategic, operational, and tactical possibilities that did not exist a decade ago.

But many wonder about a potential “dark side” as unmanned systems become even more autonomous. This was the subject of my article “Where is Increased Autonomy for Military Unmanned Systems Leading?” published in Defense 2013 in Review, Fall 2013.
and also carried on the Defense Media Network’s website at this link:

http://www.defensemedianetwork.com/stories/the-dark-side-of-unmanned-systems-autonomy/

On his blog site, Dr. Andrew Erickson of the U.S. Naval War College’s China Maritime Studies Institute (CMSI) reviewed our forthcoming Naval War College Review article, Brad Hicks, George Galdorisi, and Scott C. Truver, “The Aegis BMD Global Enterprise: A ‘High-End’ Maritime Partnership,” Naval War College Review, 65.3 (Summer 2012). So what’s the connection?

While it would be too much of a stretch to say World War III will start there, it is beyond argument that the tensions in the South China Sea (SCS) have been a source of extreme friction that has escalated into conflict between China and her smaller neighbors.  Five years ago, few people paid attention to the SCS.  Now they are – and for good reason.

The Grand Challenge

As a naval analyst looking at major military trends, one of the most cutting-edge and intriguing technologies out there is in the area of autonomous systems.  But are we really leveraging this awesome technology in the most effective way.  Maybe not.

Whether it is the intelligence community, the military, industry, or just individuals attempting to get some notion of what the future holds, extrapolating current trends to determine likely outcomes in years “downstream” is absolutely essential to stay one step ahead of any current – or future – adversaries.  This is the work of military and intelligence analysts and is more essential today than ever before.

Whether it is the intelligence community, the military, industry, or just individuals attempting to get some notion of what the future holds, extrapolating current trends to determine likely outcomes in years “downstream” is both a science and an art and one that is absolutely essential to stay one step ahead of any current – or future – adversaries.  This is the work of military and intelligence analysts and is more essential today than ever before.

One such concept, the Navy-Air Force AirSea Battle Concept (ASBC), emerged well “under the radar,” in a small study by the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments (CSBA).  Released without fanfare by an American think tank, it was “merely” one of hundreds of such studies that emerge every year.  However, we found it prescient in looking towards the future of conflict for the U.S. Armed Forces.

One of the largest gatherings of high-ranking military officials, military analysts, naval analysts, industry experts and government leaders is the annual Sea Air Space Symposium hosted by the Navy League of the United States. Widely recognized as the premier military-industry gathering in the United States, this year’s event, held at the Gaylord Center in National Harbor, Maryland, drew over 15,000 delegates.

Day 1 of this signature event focused on strategy; Day 2 on capabilities and requirements; and Day 3 on the budget. Many of the speakers emphasized the importance of the Defense Strategic Guidance, the Obama Administration’s recently-issued national strategy, and the Fiscal Year 2013 budget priorities. For the Department of Defense and for the United States Navy emphasis will continue to be placed on “capabilities” vs. “capacity” (i.e., ship numbers) and platform and system “wholeness.”