CAVASSHIPS Podcast [May 31, ’24] Ep: 147 Maritime Lessons from the War on Ukraine

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Welcome to the CavasShips Podcast with Christopher P. Cavas and Chris Servello…a weekly podcast looking at naval and maritime events and issues of the day – in the US, across the seas and around the world. This week…the Russian War on Ukraine is now in its third year and grinds on and on. George Galdorisi, a long-time observer of the conflict who predicted in writing a lot of what we’ve been seeing, joins us for an update discussion on what we’ve seen so far and what might still be to come.

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CONOPS for the U.S. Navy and the New ‘Hybrid Fleet’

As the informed readership of Seapower is well aware, the U.S. Navy stands at the precipice of a new era of technology advancement. In an address at a military-industry conference, then-U.S. Chief of Naval Operations, Admiral Michael Gilday, revealed the Navy’s goal to grow to 500 ships, to include 350 crewed vessels and 150 uncrewed maritime vehicles. This plan has been dubbed the “hybrid fleet.”

In December 2023, at the Reagan National Defense Forum, current CNO Lisa Franchetti cited the work of the Navy’s Unmanned Task Force, as well as numerous exercises, experiments and demonstrations where uncrewed surface vehicles were put in the hands of Sailors and Marines, all designed to advance the journey to achieve the Navy’s hybrid fleet.

The reason for this commitment to uncrewed vehicles is clear. During the height of the Reagan defense buildup in the mid-1980s, the U.S. Navy evolved a strategy for a “600-ship Navy.” That effort resulted in a total number of Navy ships that reached 594 in 1987. That number has declined steadily since, and today the Navy has less than half the number of ships than it had then. However, the rapid growth of the technologies that make uncrewed surface vehicles increasingly capable and affordable has provided the Navy with a potential way to put more hulls in the water.

However, the U.S. Congress has been reluctant to authorize the Navy’s planned investment of billions of dollars in USVs until the service can come up with a concept-of-operations (CONOPS) for using them. Congress has a point. The Navy has announced plans to procure large numbers of uncrewed systems — especially large and medium uncrewed surface vehicles — but a CONOPS, in even the most basic form, has not yet emerged. Additionally, while the composition of the future Navy’s crewed vessels is relatively well understood, based on ships being built and being planned, what those uncrewed maritime vehicles will look like, let alone what they will do, has yet to be fully determined.

That said, the Navy has taken several actions to define what uncrewed maritime vessels will do and thus accelerate its journey to have uncrewed platforms populate the fleet. These include publishing an Unmanned Campaign Framework, standing up an Unmanned Task Force, establishing Surface Development Squadron One in San Diego and Unmanned Surface Vessel Division One in Port Hueneme, California, and conducting a wide range of exercises, experiments and demonstrations where operators have had the opportunity to evaluate uncrewed maritime vehicles.

All these initiatives will serve the Navy well in evolving a convincing CONOPS to describe how these innovative platforms can be leveraged to achieve a hybrid fleet and gain a warfighting advantage over high-end adversaries. Fleshing out how this is to be done will require the Navy describe how these platforms will get to the operating area where they are needed (for example, the Western Pacific), as well as what missions they will perform once they arrive.

Into Warfighter Hands

The answer to the first question is that the Navy has committed to obtaining a number of large uncrewed surface vehicles (LUSVs). These will be between 200 and 300 feet long and displace 1,000 and 2,000 tons, the size of a corvette. The Navy’s budget plan funds a total of seven LUSVs over the next five years.

An evolving CONOPS is to marry various size uncrewed surface, subsurface and aerial vehicles to perform missions that the U.S. Navy has — and will continue to have — as the Navy-after-next evolves. Simply put, the Navy can use the evolving large uncrewed surface vehicle as a “truck” to move smaller USVs, UUVs and UAVs into the battle space to perform a number of important Navy missions such as intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) and mine countermeasures (MCM). There are many large, medium, small and ultra-small unmanned systems that can be adopted for these missions. Over the past several years, the Navy and Marine Corps have focused primarily on medium uncrewed vessels in its exercises, experiments and demonstrations. The reasons for this emphasis are clear: The LUSVs have not yet been built and small USVs cannot perform as many missions as their larger MUSV cousins.

Rather than speaking in hypotheticals as to how uncrewed vehicles might be employed for missions such as ISR and MCM, there are concrete examples where the services have inserted commercial-off-the-shelf uncrewed systems into recent Navy and Marine Corps events to perform these missions. Events such as the COMPACFLT-led Integrated Battle Problem series of exercises, the Integrated Maritime Exercise series held under the auspices of U.S. Naval Forces Central Command/Commander Task Force 59 in the Arabian Gulf, NATO exercises REPMUS, and the follow-on Dynamic Messenger, Australian Defence Force Exercise Autonomous Warrior, and many others too numerous to describe here put USVs — primarily medium uncrewed surface vehicles (MUSVs) — into the hands of Sailors and Marines.

While there are a wide range of MUSVs that can potentially meet the U.S. Navy’s needs, there are three uncrewed surface vehicles that are furthest along in the development cycle and that have been featured most frequently in Navy and Marine Corps exercises, experiments and demonstrations. All are currently in production and fully operational. They are:

The Leidos Sea Hunter and Sea Hawk. At 132 feet, these are the largest of the three. The Sea Hunter was launched in 2016 and was built at a cost of $20 million. It is a trimaran (a central hull with two outriggers).

The Textron monohull Common Uncrewed Surface Vessel (CUSV), now referred to as the MCM-USV, features a modular, open architecture design. The CUSV has a length of 39 feet and a beam of 11 feet.

The Maritime Tactical Systems Inc. (MARTAC), catamaran hull, uncrewed surface vehicles include the MANTAS T12 and the Devil Ray T24 and T38 craft. The T24 and T38 USVs are 24 feet and 38 feet long, respectively, with beams of 10 feet and 11 feet.

All three of these MUSVs are viable candidates to be part of an integrated uncrewed solution CONOPS. I will use the MANTAS and Devil Ray craft for a number of reasons. First, they come in different sizes with the same hull, mechanical and electrical (HME) attributes (something Congress has designated as a highly desirable attribute). Second, the Sea Hunter is simply too large to fit into the LUSVs the Navy is considering. Third, the CUSV is the MUSV of choice for the littoral combat ship Mine-Countermeasures Mission Package, and all CUSVs scheduled to be procured are committed to this program.

Strike Group CONOPS

This scenario and CONOPS is built around an Expeditionary Strike Group underway in the Western Pacific. This Strike Group includes three LUSVs under supervisory control from a large amphibious ship. In an address, Gilday suggested this CONOPS when he said he “wants to begin to deploy large- and medium-sized uncrewed vessels as part of carrier strike groups and amphibious ready groups in 2027 or 2028, and earlier if I can.”

Depending on the size ultimately procured, the LUSV can carry a number of T38 Devil Ray USVs and deliver them to a point near the intended area of operations. The T38 can then be sent independently to perform the ISR mission, or alternatively, can launch one or more T12 MANTAS USVs to perform this task. Building on work conducted by the Navy laboratory community and sponsored by the Office of Naval Research, the T38 will have the ability to launch uncrewed aerial vehicles to conduct overhead ISR.

For the MCM mission, the LUSV can deliver several T38s equipped with mine-hunting and mine-clearing systems (all of which are COTS platforms tested extensively in Navy exercises). These vessels can then undertake the “dull, dirty and dangerous” work previously conducted by Sailors who had to operate in the minefield. Given the large mine inventory of peer and near-peer adversaries, this methodology may well be the only way to clear mines safely.

While the full details of how this CONOPS plays out is beyond the scope of this article, this innovative approach accomplishes an important goal. If the U.S. Navy wants to keep its multi-billion-dollar capital ships out of harm’s way, it will need to surge uncrewed maritime vehicles into the contested battlespace while its manned ships stay out of range of increasingly capable adversary A2/AD platforms, systems, sensors and weapons.

To be clear, this is not a platform-specific solution, but rather a concept. When fleet operators see a capability with different size uncrewed COTS platforms in the water working together and successfully performing the missions presented here, they will likely press industry to produce even more-capable platforms to perform these missions.

While evolutionary in nature, this disruptive capability delivered using emerging technologies can provide the U.S. Navy with near-term solutions to vexing operational challenges, while demonstrating to a skeptical Congress the Navy does have a concept-of-operations to employ the uncrewed systems it wants to procure.

Most recently, the Navy has signaled a commitment to the Replicator program. This initiative is intended to field thousands of attritable, autonomous systems across multiple domains within the next two years as part of a plan to better compete with China.

In announcing the program, Deputy Defense Secretary Kathleen Hicks noted, “we will counter the People’s Liberation Army’s mass with mass of our own, but ours will be harder to plan for, harder to hit, and harder to beat.”

Op-Ed: Reagan National Defense Forum highlights the relevance of new technologies on the battlefield

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The Reagan National Defense Forum (RNDF) is one of the most important national security dialogues of the year. “Everyone who is anyone” in the national security space is either an invited speaker or an in-person attendee.

Given Coronado’s long association with the U.S. military, as well as today’s substantial military presence and number of residents who are either active duty or retired military members, what occurs at this event is likely of keen interest to the Coronado community.

Speakers at the most recent RNDF included the secretary of defense, secretaries of the military services, uniformed chiefs of the military services, key innovation and acquisition leaders such as the Defense Innovation Unit (DIU) director, senators and congressmen from key defense committees and others who help shape U.S. national security policy.

Unmanned surface vehicles (USVs) represent one of the most cutting-edge and innovative technologies in today’s defense space. Given the scope of the RNDF, not every speaker’s remarks were directly focused on unmanned surface vehicles. That said, what was discussed was national security gaps that the U.S. military needs to address, and filling these gaps had a strong emphasis on USVs.

Relevance of new technologies

Some of the high points of the event included:

  • During his remarks, the Director of the Defense Innovation Unit, Doug Beck, described three lessons about the use of disruptive technologies in the conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine:
    • The relevance of new technologies on the battlefield, especially unmanned systems.
    • The power that alliances and partnerships can bring to the table.
    • The power of talent, meaning the need for smart operators to fully exploit emerging technologies.
    • Beck noted that these are three lessons that the Department of Defense is leveraging as it looks to help the United States prepare for conflict anywhere in the world, but especially in the Indo-Pacific region. For example, he noted that USVs such as MANTAS and Devil Ray have been invited to Pacific Fleet Integrated Battle Problem events over the past several years (and into 2024) due to their usefulness in the high-end fight in the Pacific theater.
Chris Valdez conducts pre-underway systems checks aboard the MANTAS T38 Devil Ray unmanned surface vehicle during an operations demonstration on April 17, 2021. Photo courtesy of DVIDS.
  • As PACOM Commander, Admiral John Aquilino, pointed out, the United States needs to understand that our primary peer adversary, China, is also watching the conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine carefully to develop the force structure, doctrine, tactics, techniques and procedures to prevail against the United States.
  • In his remarks, the Secretary of the Air Force, Frank Kendall, noted that one of the important lessons we have learned from the conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine is the growing need for more autonomy in unmanned systems in all domains. He called out Israel’s Harpy system (an unmanned, loitering, weaponized autonomous UAS) as one example of the kind of weapon that will be important in any conflict in the Indo-Pacific region.
  • During his remarks, Kendall noted that a key technology vital for future conflicts, especially in the Indo-Pacific region, is the ability to implement manned-unmanned teaming to fully exploit the best attributes of both the human and the machine. As an example, he used the Air Force Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA) program (a manned aircraft such as the Joint Strike Fighter operating with two or more (up to five) “loyal wingmen” unmanned aircraft).
  • During her remarks, the Chief of Naval Operations, Admiral Lisa Franchetti, called out unmanned surface vehicles, which were used with deadly effect in the war in Ukraine, as key assets in any conflict with a peer competitor. She cited the work of the Navy’s Unmanned Task Force as well as numerous exercises, experiments and demonstrations to not only develop technology, but to put it in the hands of sailors and Marines to determine its usefulness. Admiral Franchetti spoke explicitly about the work of Commander Task Force 59 in the Arabian Gulf as well as the Integrated Battle Problem series of exercises where Saildrone, MANTAS and Devil Ray USVs performed several missions.
  • During his remarks, Representative Mike Gallagher, chair of the House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), noted that other speakers had talked about the DoD’s “Replicator” program (a favorite program of Deputy Secretary of Defense Hicks). While noting that it was a good program in concept, he was concerned that the United States does not yet have the technology to control a thousand or more drones simultaneously.
  • Representative Gallagher also noted that a key U.S. vulnerability vis-à-vis new technologies is that the U.S. hesitates to pick technology “winners and losers” (especially with AI) the same way that the CCP does. He suggested that this is slowing down the effective insertion of AI into U.S. military platforms, systems, sensors and weapons.
  • During her remarks at the Reagan National Defense Forum, the Under Secretary of Defense for Research and Engineering, Heidi Shyu, reminded attendees that in seeking to develop artificial intelligence and machine learning (ML) for military uses, it is important to remember that without well-curated data to mine, AI and ML are all but useless.

Readers of The Coronado News who have read previous articles focused on unmanned surface vehicles are likely not surprised that this signature national security event had a strong focus on one technology. Momentum is building for the U.S. Navy to continue designing, testing, and fielding unmanned surface vehicles as one way to help secure the global commons and enhance the security and prosperity of our nation.

George Galdorisi is a career naval aviator and national security professional. His 30-year career as a naval aviator culminated in 14 years of consecutive service as executive officer, commanding officer, commodore, and chief of staff. He is a 40-year Coronado resident and enjoys writing, especially speculative fiction about the future of warfare. He is the author of 16 books, including four consecutive New York Times best sellers.

USVs for Defense TECHNET Indo-Pacific Conference Highlights Uncrewed Vessels By George Galdorisi

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The U.S. Navy has taken several actions to define and accelerate its journey to have uncrewed platforms populate the fleet. These include publishing an UNMANNED Campaign Framework, standing up an Unmanned Task Force, establishing Surface Development Squadron One in San Diego and Unmanned Surface Vessel Division One in Port Hueneme, CA, and conducting a large number of exercises, experiments and demonstrations to evaluate uncrewed platforms, including the recently completed Integrated Battle Problem 2023.

This U.S. Navy’s emphasis on uncrewed maritime vehicles was on full display at a recent major international military-industry event. Held in Honolulu, Hawaii at the Hilton Hawaiian Village in mid-November 2023, TECHNET Indo-Pacific drew over 4,000 delegates from throughout the Indo-Pacific region. As in previous years, the conference featured keynote speakers as well as breakout panels.

Click here to read the entire paper

Reagan National Defense Forum Highlights Uncrewed Maritime Systems By George Galdorisi

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The Reagan National Defense Forum, held every year on a Saturday in early December, is one of the most important national security dialogues of the year. “Everyone who is anyone” in the national security space is either an invited speaker or an in-person attendee.

As the informed readership of Maritime Reporter and Engineering News knows, uncrewed surface vehicles (USVs) represent one of the most cutting-edge and innovative technologies in today’s defense space. Given the scope of this event, not every speaker’s remarks were directly focused on uncrewed surface vehicles. That said, what was discussed regarding national security were gaps that the U.S. military needs to fill. Unsurprisingly, discussions regarding technology, innovation and other issues had a strong emphasis on these USVs.

Listen to the full episode at Maritime Magazines

Fix, Fly, Fight – WIN

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from Rotor Review Winter 2024 #163

by Naval Helicopter Association, Inc

By CAPT George Galdorisi, USN (Ret.)

It is hard to believe that Harry Reasoner’s quote about helicopter pilots being different is over a half-century old. Most of you reading this weren’t around when he famously offered his opinion on February 16, 1971. That’s okay, you may have seen the framed quote on a wall in your squadron spaces or just heard it somewhere as part of the tribal knowledge of being part of our community. Here it is:

“The thing is, helicopters are different from planes. An airplane by its very nature wants to fly and, if not interfered with too strongly by unusual events or by a deliberately incompetent pilot, it will fly. A helicopter does not want to fly. It is maintained in the air by a variety of forces and controls working in opposition to each other and, if there is any disturbance in this delicate balance, the helicopter stops flying; immediately and disastrously. There is no such thing as a gliding helicopter.”

“This is why being a helicopter pilot is so different from being an airplane pilot, and why in generality, airplane pilots are open, clear-eyed, buoyant extroverts, and helicopter pilots are brooding introspective anticipators of trouble. They know if something bad has not happened, it is about to.”

That was then and this is now. If Harry Reasoner was alive today, he likely would never have said this. Why? Our aircraft are routinely the most reliable and mission capable in all of Naval Aviation. This is due, in no small measure, to the dedicated and tireless work of the men and women who maintain our (now-aging) aircraft and make them ready for flight.

During my first squadron tour, one of my fellow first-tour aviators was complaining about how some of the Sailors under his charge were having this or that issue and that it was taking up a lot of his time. Our skipper called him in for a chat. He asked the young lieutenant if he loved flying. The answer was “yes.” “Well then,” our CO said, “these men (all men then, this was the early 1970s) come to work every day and do what they likely don’t love doing so you can do what you do love doing.

Our maintainers are likely challenged more today than ever before. Except for our Osprey fleet (which has its own maintenance challenges) our aircraft are aging. Parts shortages, engendered by budget issues such as continuing resolutions, mean more work for the professionals who ensure the safety of our aircraft. We owe them our thanks.

Military-Industry Conference Highlights the Importance of Uncrewed Vessels

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This U.S. Navy emphasis on uncrewed maritime vehicles was on full display at a major international military-industry event. Held in Honolulu, Hawaii, TECHNET Indo-Pacific drew over 4,000 delegates from throughout the Indo-Pacific region. Highlights included:

  • Pacific Fleet is looking for ways to get unmanned surface vehicles forward to desired areas of operations.
  • Pacific Fleet’s strong emphasis on unmanned will enable warfighters to conduct missions in a contested environment that manned systems cannot do.
  • International Maritime Exercise 2022, held under the auspices of CTF 59 in the Arabian Gulf included operations with several regional partners. Navies of these nations explored the capabilities of USVs such as the Saildrone, the MARTAC MANTAS and Devil Ray, and many other USVs from participating nations.
  • Australia has become a leader is USV experimentation. Autonomous Warrior 22 expanded the evaluation of USVs from Australia, New Zealand, the United Kingdom and the United States and featured 30 autonomous systems, including Saildrone, MANTAS and Devil Ray.

Military-Industry Conference Highlights the Importance of Uncrewed Vessels

Op-Ed: Military-Industry Conference highlights the importance of Uncrewed Vessels

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For those who follow military matters, it is impossible to miss the impact of emerging technologies on changing the character of warfare through the ages. From the time that our cave-dwelling ancestors figured out how to fasten a sharpened stone to the end of a sturdy stick, advances in weaponry have decided the outcome of battles and the fate of nations.

For the U.S. Navy, unmanned systems – especially uncrewed maritime systems – offer the promise of providing the U.S. military with an asymmetric advantage over potential adversaries. Ukraine’s use of weaponized uncrewed surface systems to attack Russian naval vessels has demonstrated just one use of these – as one wag described them – “Swiss Army Knife” platforms.

You can read the full article here

SURFACE SITREP

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For centuries, sea mines have presented an affordable and effective option in naval warfare. That threat remains today.

The use of sea mines and countermeasures to these weapons have figured significantly in every major armed conflict and nearly every regional conflict in which the United States has been involved since the Revolutionary War.

While many analysts evaluate the ability of the United States to deal with peer adversaries such as China and Russia in terms of cutting-edge technologies, these nations are likely to employ mines in any conflict with the United States.

For all navies, there is only one way to completely, “Take the sailor out of the minefield,” and that is to leverage unmanned technologies to hunt and destroy mines at a distance.

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Protecting Offshore Energy Sources

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The often fervent dialogue regarding generating energy typically breaks people into two camps. There are those who promote fossil fuel production, and those who favor green energy. Those who favor green energy are sometimes zealous in their arguments that the United States should eliminate fossil fuel dependence and rely only on green energy.

As this debate rages, what is often lost in the arguments on both sides is that regardless of the type of energy being extracted or generated, those platforms that are offshore, especially oil rigs, oil and gas pipelines, and wind farms, are vulnerable to anyone who wants to attack these sources in wartime, or just to make a political statement.

One need look no further than the suspected sabotage of Nord Stream gas pipelines that run from Russia to Europe under the Baltic Sea, or the more recent likely sabotage of a natural gas pipeline between Finland and Estonia, to understand the vulnerability of sea-based energy sources.

While there have been major strides in the development and fielding of renewable energy sources such as solar, wind and others, for the foreseeable future, the world’s energy needs will continue to be met primarily by oil and natural gas. Indeed, a Wall Street Journal article earlier this year, “Offshore Oil is Gushing Again,” noted that while just over 60% of available oil rigs worldwide were in use five years ago, today that number approaches 90%. Importantly, it is the offshore oil and gas industry that still provides a huge amount of United States’ energy.

Global tensions typically interrupt the transport of energy across the oceans. Therefore, protecting these offshore energy sources is a national security priority.

Read the article in the latest issue of Sea Technology here