Welcome to the CavasShips Podcast with Christopher P. Cavas and Chris Servello…a weekly podcast looking at naval and maritime events and issues of the day – in the US, across the seas and around the world. This week…the Russian War on Ukraine is now in its third year and grinds on and on. George Galdorisi, a long-time observer of the conflict who predicted in writing a lot of what we’ve been seeing, joins us for an update discussion on what we’ve seen so far and what might still be to come.

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As the informed readership of Seapower is well aware, the U.S. Navy stands at the precipice of a new era of technology advancement. In an address at a military-industry conference, then-U.S. Chief of Naval Operations, Admiral Michael Gilday, revealed the Navy’s goal to grow to 500 ships, to include 350 crewed vessels and 150 uncrewed maritime vehicles. This plan has been dubbed the “hybrid fleet.”

In December 2023, at the Reagan National Defense Forum, current CNO Lisa Franchetti cited the work of the Navy’s Unmanned Task Force, as well as numerous exercises, experiments and demonstrations where uncrewed surface vehicles were put in the hands of Sailors and Marines, all designed to advance the journey to achieve the Navy’s hybrid fleet.

The reason for this commitment to uncrewed vehicles is clear. During the height of the Reagan defense buildup in the mid-1980s, the U.S. Navy evolved a strategy for a “600-ship Navy.” That effort resulted in a total number of Navy ships that reached 594 in 1987. That number has declined steadily since, and today the Navy has less than half the number of ships than it had then. However, the rapid growth of the technologies that make uncrewed surface vehicles increasingly capable and affordable has provided the Navy with a potential way to put more hulls in the water.

However, the U.S. Congress has been reluctant to authorize the Navy’s planned investment of billions of dollars in USVs until the service can come up with a concept-of-operations (CONOPS) for using them. Congress has a point. The Navy has announced plans to procure large numbers of uncrewed systems — especially large and medium uncrewed surface vehicles — but a CONOPS, in even the most basic form, has not yet emerged. Additionally, while the composition of the future Navy’s crewed vessels is relatively well understood, based on ships being built and being planned, what those uncrewed maritime vehicles will look like, let alone what they will do, has yet to be fully determined.

That said, the Navy has taken several actions to define what uncrewed maritime vessels will do and thus accelerate its journey to have uncrewed platforms populate the fleet. These include publishing an Unmanned Campaign Framework, standing up an Unmanned Task Force, establishing Surface Development Squadron One in San Diego and Unmanned Surface Vessel Division One in Port Hueneme, California, and conducting a wide range of exercises, experiments and demonstrations where operators have had the opportunity to evaluate uncrewed maritime vehicles.

All these initiatives will serve the Navy well in evolving a convincing CONOPS to describe how these innovative platforms can be leveraged to achieve a hybrid fleet and gain a warfighting advantage over high-end adversaries. Fleshing out how this is to be done will require the Navy describe how these platforms will get to the operating area where they are needed (for example, the Western Pacific), as well as what missions they will perform once they arrive.

Into Warfighter Hands

The answer to the first question is that the Navy has committed to obtaining a number of large uncrewed surface vehicles (LUSVs). These will be between 200 and 300 feet long and displace 1,000 and 2,000 tons, the size of a corvette. The Navy’s budget plan funds a total of seven LUSVs over the next five years.

An evolving CONOPS is to marry various size uncrewed surface, subsurface and aerial vehicles to perform missions that the U.S. Navy has — and will continue to have — as the Navy-after-next evolves. Simply put, the Navy can use the evolving large uncrewed surface vehicle as a “truck” to move smaller USVs, UUVs and UAVs into the battle space to perform a number of important Navy missions such as intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) and mine countermeasures (MCM). There are many large, medium, small and ultra-small unmanned systems that can be adopted for these missions. Over the past several years, the Navy and Marine Corps have focused primarily on medium uncrewed vessels in its exercises, experiments and demonstrations. The reasons for this emphasis are clear: The LUSVs have not yet been built and small USVs cannot perform as many missions as their larger MUSV cousins.

Rather than speaking in hypotheticals as to how uncrewed vehicles might be employed for missions such as ISR and MCM, there are concrete examples where the services have inserted commercial-off-the-shelf uncrewed systems into recent Navy and Marine Corps events to perform these missions. Events such as the COMPACFLT-led Integrated Battle Problem series of exercises, the Integrated Maritime Exercise series held under the auspices of U.S. Naval Forces Central Command/Commander Task Force 59 in the Arabian Gulf, NATO exercises REPMUS, and the follow-on Dynamic Messenger, Australian Defence Force Exercise Autonomous Warrior, and many others too numerous to describe here put USVs — primarily medium uncrewed surface vehicles (MUSVs) — into the hands of Sailors and Marines.

While there are a wide range of MUSVs that can potentially meet the U.S. Navy’s needs, there are three uncrewed surface vehicles that are furthest along in the development cycle and that have been featured most frequently in Navy and Marine Corps exercises, experiments and demonstrations. All are currently in production and fully operational. They are:

The Leidos Sea Hunter and Sea Hawk. At 132 feet, these are the largest of the three. The Sea Hunter was launched in 2016 and was built at a cost of $20 million. It is a trimaran (a central hull with two outriggers).

The Textron monohull Common Uncrewed Surface Vessel (CUSV), now referred to as the MCM-USV, features a modular, open architecture design. The CUSV has a length of 39 feet and a beam of 11 feet.

The Maritime Tactical Systems Inc. (MARTAC), catamaran hull, uncrewed surface vehicles include the MANTAS T12 and the Devil Ray T24 and T38 craft. The T24 and T38 USVs are 24 feet and 38 feet long, respectively, with beams of 10 feet and 11 feet.

All three of these MUSVs are viable candidates to be part of an integrated uncrewed solution CONOPS. I will use the MANTAS and Devil Ray craft for a number of reasons. First, they come in different sizes with the same hull, mechanical and electrical (HME) attributes (something Congress has designated as a highly desirable attribute). Second, the Sea Hunter is simply too large to fit into the LUSVs the Navy is considering. Third, the CUSV is the MUSV of choice for the littoral combat ship Mine-Countermeasures Mission Package, and all CUSVs scheduled to be procured are committed to this program.

Strike Group CONOPS

This scenario and CONOPS is built around an Expeditionary Strike Group underway in the Western Pacific. This Strike Group includes three LUSVs under supervisory control from a large amphibious ship. In an address, Gilday suggested this CONOPS when he said he “wants to begin to deploy large- and medium-sized uncrewed vessels as part of carrier strike groups and amphibious ready groups in 2027 or 2028, and earlier if I can.”

Depending on the size ultimately procured, the LUSV can carry a number of T38 Devil Ray USVs and deliver them to a point near the intended area of operations. The T38 can then be sent independently to perform the ISR mission, or alternatively, can launch one or more T12 MANTAS USVs to perform this task. Building on work conducted by the Navy laboratory community and sponsored by the Office of Naval Research, the T38 will have the ability to launch uncrewed aerial vehicles to conduct overhead ISR.

For the MCM mission, the LUSV can deliver several T38s equipped with mine-hunting and mine-clearing systems (all of which are COTS platforms tested extensively in Navy exercises). These vessels can then undertake the “dull, dirty and dangerous” work previously conducted by Sailors who had to operate in the minefield. Given the large mine inventory of peer and near-peer adversaries, this methodology may well be the only way to clear mines safely.

While the full details of how this CONOPS plays out is beyond the scope of this article, this innovative approach accomplishes an important goal. If the U.S. Navy wants to keep its multi-billion-dollar capital ships out of harm’s way, it will need to surge uncrewed maritime vehicles into the contested battlespace while its manned ships stay out of range of increasingly capable adversary A2/AD platforms, systems, sensors and weapons.

To be clear, this is not a platform-specific solution, but rather a concept. When fleet operators see a capability with different size uncrewed COTS platforms in the water working together and successfully performing the missions presented here, they will likely press industry to produce even more-capable platforms to perform these missions.

While evolutionary in nature, this disruptive capability delivered using emerging technologies can provide the U.S. Navy with near-term solutions to vexing operational challenges, while demonstrating to a skeptical Congress the Navy does have a concept-of-operations to employ the uncrewed systems it wants to procure.

Most recently, the Navy has signaled a commitment to the Replicator program. This initiative is intended to field thousands of attritable, autonomous systems across multiple domains within the next two years as part of a plan to better compete with China.

In announcing the program, Deputy Defense Secretary Kathleen Hicks noted, “we will counter the People’s Liberation Army’s mass with mass of our own, but ours will be harder to plan for, harder to hit, and harder to beat.”

The Reagan National Defense Forum (RNDF) is one of the most important national security dialogues of the year. “Everyone who is anyone” in the national security space is either an invited speaker or an in-person attendee.

Given Coronado’s long association with the U.S. military, as well as today’s substantial military presence and number of residents who are either active duty or retired military members, what occurs at this event is likely of keen interest to the Coronado community.

Speakers at the most recent RNDF included the secretary of defense, secretaries of the military services, uniformed chiefs of the military services, key innovation and acquisition leaders such as the Defense Innovation Unit (DIU) director, senators and congressmen from key defense committees and others who help shape U.S. national security policy.

Unmanned surface vehicles (USVs) represent one of the most cutting-edge and innovative technologies in today’s defense space. Given the scope of the RNDF, not every speaker’s remarks were directly focused on unmanned surface vehicles. That said, what was discussed was national security gaps that the U.S. military needs to address, and filling these gaps had a strong emphasis on USVs.

Relevance of new technologies

Some of the high points of the event included:

• During his remarks, the Director of the Defense Innovation Unit, Doug Beck, described three lessons about the use of disruptive technologies in the conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine:
  • The relevance of new technologies on the battlefield, especially unmanned systems.
  • The power that alliances and partnerships can bring to the table.
  • The power of talent, meaning the need for smart operators to fully exploit emerging technologies.
  • Beck noted that these are three lessons that the Department of Defense is leveraging as it looks to help the United States prepare for conflict anywhere in the world, but especially in the Indo-Pacific region. For example, he noted that USVs such as MANTAS and Devil Ray have been invited to Pacific Fleet Integrated Battle Problem events over the past several years (and into 2024) due to their usefulness in the high-end fight in the Pacific theater.

• As PACOM Commander, Admiral John Aquilino, pointed out, the United States needs to understand that our primary peer adversary, China, is also watching the conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine carefully to develop the force structure, doctrine, tactics, techniques and procedures to prevail against the United States.

• In his remarks, the Secretary of the Air Force, Frank Kendall, noted that one of the important lessons we have learned from the conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine is the growing need for more autonomy in unmanned systems in all domains. He called out Israel’s Harpy system (an unmanned, loitering, weaponized autonomous UAS) as one example of the kind of weapon that will be important in any conflict in the Indo-Pacific region.

• During his remarks, Kendall noted that a key technology vital for future conflicts, especially in the Indo-Pacific region, is the ability to implement manned-unmanned teaming to fully exploit the best attributes of both the human and the machine. As an example, he used the Air Force Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA) program (a manned aircraft such as the Joint Strike Fighter operating with two or more (up to five) “loyal wingmen” unmanned aircraft).

• During her remarks, the Chief of Naval Operations, Admiral Lisa Franchetti, called out unmanned surface vehicles, which were used with deadly effect in the war in Ukraine, as key assets in any conflict with a peer competitor. She cited the work of the Navy’s Unmanned Task Force as well as numerous exercises, experiments and demonstrations to not only develop technology, but to put it in the hands of sailors and Marines to determine its usefulness. Admiral Franchetti spoke explicitly about the work of Commander Task Force 59 in the Arabian Gulf as well as the Integrated Battle Problem series of exercises where Saildrone, MANTAS and Devil Ray USVs performed several missions.

• During his remarks, Representative Mike Gallagher, chair of the House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), noted that other speakers had talked about the DoD’s “Replicator” program (a favorite program of Deputy Secretary of Defense Hicks). While noting that it was a good program in concept, he was concerned that the United States does not yet have the technology to control a thousand or more drones simultaneously.

• Representative Gallagher also noted that a key U.S. vulnerability vis-à-vis new technologies is that the U.S. hesitates to pick technology “winners and losers” (especially with AI) the same way that the CCP does. He suggested that this is slowing down the effective insertion of AI into U.S. military platforms, systems, sensors and weapons.

• During her remarks at the Reagan National Defense Forum, the Under Secretary of Defense for Research and Engineering, Heidi Shyu, reminded attendees that in seeking to develop artificial intelligence and machine learning (ML) for military uses, it is important to remember that without well-curated data to mine, AI and ML are all but useless.

Readers of The Coronado News who have read previous articles focused on unmanned surface vehicles are likely not surprised that this signature national security event had a strong focus on one technology. Momentum is building for the U.S. Navy to continue designing, testing, and fielding unmanned surface vehicles as one way to help secure the global commons and enhance the security and prosperity of our nation.

George Galdorisi is a career naval aviator and national security professional. His 30-year career as a naval aviator culminated in 14 years of consecutive service as executive officer, commanding officer, commodore, and chief of staff. He is a 40-year Coronado resident and enjoys writing, especially speculative fiction about the future of warfare. He is the author of 16 books, including four consecutive New York Times best sellers.

The U.S. Navy has taken several actions to define and accelerate its journey to have uncrewed platforms populate the fleet. These include publishing an UNMANNED Campaign Framework, standing up an Unmanned Task Force, establishing Surface Development Squadron One in San Diego and Unmanned Surface Vessel Division One in Port Hueneme, CA, and conducting a large number of exercises, experiments and demonstrations to evaluate uncrewed platforms, including the recently completed Integrated Battle Problem 2023.

This U.S. Navy’s emphasis on uncrewed maritime vehicles was on full display at a recent major international military-industry event. Held in Honolulu, Hawaii at the Hilton Hawaiian Village in mid-November 2023, TECHNET Indo-Pacific drew over 4,000 delegates from throughout the Indo-Pacific region. As in previous years, the conference featured keynote speakers as well as breakout panels.

Click here to read the entire paper

Reviewed by LCDR Chip Lancaster, USN (Ret.)

Are you a writer? Do you like to write or is it a chore you put off as long as possible? Robert’s Rules of Writing says that, “writing takes deliberation, craft and commitment.” I like writing, but do I love it? I don’t know. George and Kevin’s book, Braveship Writers Share Their Secrets will help you make that decision. The “Braveship Writers” are a group of mainly Naval Aviators who share many things, some secret some not, but all valuable.

Braveship Secrets is a compendium of information acquired from the experience of actual writers who make it their business. It starts by giving you some perspective. Writing is a form of human communication that humans have been doing since a cave wall could be scratched. Writing is as natural as breathing; humans have to do it, some more than others. The book is broken into short, easily absorbed chapters, perhaps making it an ideal bathroom reader. The chapters cover such things as how to get started answering Rudyard Kipling’s questions of what, where, when, how, why and who.

Read the entire article at Rotor Review

The Reagan National Defense Forum, held every year on a Saturday in early December, is one of the most important national security dialogues of the year. “Everyone who is anyone” in the national security space is either an invited speaker or an in-person attendee.

As the informed readership of Maritime Reporter and Engineering News knows, uncrewed surface vehicles (USVs) represent one of the most cutting-edge and innovative technologies in today’s defense space. Given the scope of this event, not every speaker’s remarks were directly focused on uncrewed surface vehicles. That said, what was discussed regarding national security were gaps that the U.S. military needs to fill. Unsurprisingly, discussions regarding technology, innovation and other issues had a strong emphasis on these USVs.

Listen to the full episode at Maritime Magazines

“an excellent primer for anyone wanting a solid understanding of this future U.S. national security challenge.”

Is artificial intelligence (AI) the next superweapon of warfare? What is AI and how will it truly affect warfare in this century? Can anything be done to stop the spread of AI and its impacts on future conflict? These are questions the authors try to answer in a fairly straightforward manner in this informative volume that addresses one of the most controversial topics in the defense arena today.

Hello Writing Friends

Trust that your writing efforts are gaining momentum as we move into March. I’ve heard that spring is just around the corner…we’ll see.

I suspect that we all have our favorite writing quotes. Here’s one that I will resonate with most of you…with apologies to my Australian friends:

“In America, only the successful writer is important, in France, all writers are important, in England, no writer is important and in Australia you have to explain what a writer is.” Geoffry Cotterell

If you have one you’d like to share I’d love to hear about it.

Who among you has too much time to write. I didn’t notice any hands going up.

Here is something that I read that might provide some inspiration:

Most people who write yearn for more of one thing. No, it’s not inspiration, or an uber-quiet office, or a better agent, or a more fabulous publisher. It is one thing alone: time!

That is why I was drawn to a recent article by Ken Wells, “How I Wrote Five Novels While Commuting.” It inspired me to make time. Here is how he begins

When I took a job in New York City at the age of 44, I had work I loved, a growing family and a secret disappointment. I had always wanted to write a novel.

For eight years I’d dragged a manuscript around and fitfully pecked away at it. But mornings with my wife and young daughters were busy, and my job as an editor and writer at this paper was demanding. By the time I slogged home after eight to 10 hours at the office, I was usually too beat to write another sentence.

How would I ever find the time and energy to write?

My move came with a commute. I was captive to a train that shuttled me back and forth from my home in suburban New Jersey, to Hoboken, N.J., where I hopped a ferry to my job in lower Manhattan. The train ride was about 50 minutes each way.

A week or two into my commute, two things had become clear: I would be spending a lot of time on the train. And the ride was pretty comfortable. One day it hit me: Could I write a novel on the train?

I started doing calculations. If I subtracted, say, 10 weeks a year for vacation, business travel and sick days, that meant I’d have 42 weeks, or 210 weekdays a year, to work on my novel. If I could write two single-spaced pages a day, or about 1,000 words—which didn’t seem that ambitious—surely at the end of 12 months I could end up with close to a 400-page manuscript.

Okay, enough said on that subject. I decided that maybe I do have more time than I think I did.

Finally, I wanted to share some news on the book front. My co-author, Sam Tangredi have a book coming out on March 12. Here is the descriptive copy:

Algorithms of Armageddon: The Impact of Artificial Intelligence on Future Wars

It is unclear if U.S. policy makers and military leaders fully realize that we have already been thrust into an artificial intelligence (AI) race with authoritarian powers. Today, the United States’ peer adversaries—China and Russia—have made clear their intentions to make major investments in AI and insert this technology into their military systems, sensors and weapons.  Their goal is to gain an asymmetric advantage over the U.S. military. The implications for our national security are many and complex. Algorithms of Armageddon examines this most pressing security issue in a clear, insightful delivery by two experts. Authors George Galdorisi and Sam J. Tangredi are national security professionals who deal with AI on a day-to-day basis in their work in both the technical and policy arenas.

The book’s opening chapters explain the fundamentals of what constitutes big data, machine learning, and artificial intelligence.  The authors investigate the convergence of AI with other technologies and how these systems will interact with humans. Critical to the issue is the manner by which AI is being developed and utilized by China and Russia. The central chapters of the work address the weaponizing of AI through interaction with other technologies, human-machine teaming, and autonomous weapons systems. The authors cover in depth the debates surrounding the AI “genie out of the bottle” controversy, AI arms races, and the resulting impact on policy and the laws of war. Given that global powers are leading large-scale development of AI, it is likely that use of this technology will be global in extent. Will AI-enabled military weapons systems lead to full-scale global war? Can such a conflict be avoided? The later chapters of the work explore these questions, point to the possibility of humans failing to control military AI applications, and conclude that the dangers for the United States are real.

Neither a protest against AI, nor a speculative work on how AI could replace humans, Algorithms of Armageddon provides a time-critical understanding of why AI is being implemented through state weaponization, the realities for the global power balance, and more importantly, U.S. national security. Galdorisi and Tangredi propose a national dialogue that focuses on the need for U.S. military to have access to the latest AI-enabled technology in order to provide security and prosperity to the American people.

I’ve attached the flyer we use to share information about the book (You can click here to download the flyer). We think that this book clears away the hype about AI, a subject that has generated vastly more heat than light.

Finally, whenever I find an article online or in print that I find useful in upping my writing game, I put it on my website: https://georgegaldorisi.com/.  If you go to the site, you’ll see “Blog” at the top and the pull-down menu takes you to “Writing Tips.” These include these monthly missives. Perhaps you’ll find some of these useful.

Thanks for tuning in. I would love to hear about your latest writing project(s).

All the best – George

from Rotor Review Winter 2024 #163

from Rotor Review Winter 2024 #163

Reviewed by LCDR Chip Lancaster, USN (Ret.)

Are you a writer? Do you like to write or is it a chore you put off as long as possible? Robert’s Rules of Writing says that, “writing takes deliberation, craft and commitment.” I like writing, but do I love it? I don’t know. George and Kevin’s book, Braveship Writers Share Their Secrets will help you make that decision. The “Braveship Writers” are a group of mainly Naval Aviators who share many things, some secret some not, but all valuable.

Braveship Secrets is a compendium of information acquired from the experience of actual writers who make it their business. It starts by giving you some perspective. Writing is a form of human communication that humans have been doing since a cave wall could be scratched. Writing is as natural as breathing; humans have to do it, some more than others. The book is broken into short, easily absorbed chapters, perhaps making it an ideal bathroom reader. The chapters cover such things as how to get started answering Rudyard Kipling’s questions of what, where, when, how, why and who.

One feature of the book that really stands out is George and Kevin’s advice. Their admonitions and encouragements are liberally interspersed with quotes, examples, and advice from many of the other Braveship Writers as well as notable famous names such as Tom Clancy, Dean Koontz, Ian Fleming, and Stephen King, as well as script writers like Larry David, Jerry Seinfeld, and Stanley D. Williams, just to name a few.

The authors reveal how to develop and build characters, plot, and – above all – action. Those are the keywords: plot, characters, and action. Writer’s Secrets takes you deep into each of those aspects. Aspects that are critical to making the reader not only want to know what is going to happen but command the reader that there is no other choice but to read on. Now that’s a page-turner! This guide itself is no thriller, but I did need to turn that page to see where they were going and what was coming up next.

You are not left with just the why, where, when and how but also given an in-depth look into the industry. Turning your thoughts, ideas, and imaginings into hundreds of written pages is just the beginning. The publishing business, agents and marketing are another world entirely. If you’re serious about writing a book, then the process of putting one on the street is something you have to seriously consider. I like writing and have written dozens of magazine articles, but I would think twice before I jumped into the publishing and marketing briar patch. George and Kevin don’t pull any punches, giving you the good, the bad, and the ugly of the business. I have to smile here as one of the things they stress is to not use too many idioms and cliches and here I am throwing several at you. The difference is I’m a straight article writer not a pageturner writer that you will want to be for your book.

Braveship Writers Share Their Secrets is a short, easy to read 168 pages chock full of knowledge nuggets you will want to know even if you’re just an article writer like me. I found it so worthwhile that I trashed it with highlighter. Every chapter gives you half a dozen different things that you presumed you knew all about but really didn’t. Every chapter gives you information that you had never even thought of before. At the end, you’re treated to other writing resources and all of the Braveship Writers with pictures and biographies. George Galdorisi and Kevin McDonald have given us a beautifully written treasure trove of information that anyone who espouses themself to be any type of writer will find valuable. Check it out and find out if you’re a plotter or pantser. I’m a plotter incidentally. Whatever you are, you will not be disappointed. Braveship Writers is worth more than the price of admission; there, I did it again. I give it five stars and two enthusiastic thumbs up.