Extrapolating Current Trends: We Know Where the U.S. Navy will be Operating in the Next Decade

Center for Naval Analysis

Whether it is the intelligence community, the military, industry, or just individuals attempting to get some notion of what the future holds, extrapolating current trends to determine likely outcomes in years “downstream” is absolutely essential to stay one step ahead of any current – or future – adversaries.  This is the work of military and intelligence analysts and is more essential today than ever before.

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Navy-Air Force AirSea Battle Concept — Peering into the Future

AirSea Battle Concept

Whether it is the intelligence community, the military, industry, or just individuals attempting to get some notion of what the future holds, extrapolating current trends to determine likely outcomes in years “downstream” is both a science and an art and one that is absolutely essential to stay one step ahead of any current – or future – adversaries.  This is the work of military and intelligence analysts and is more essential today than ever before.

One such concept, the Navy-Air Force AirSea Battle Concept (ASBC), emerged well “under the radar,” in a small study by the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments (CSBA).  Released without fanfare by an American think tank, it was “merely” one of hundreds of such studies that emerge every year.  However, we found it prescient in looking towards the future of conflict for the U.S. Armed Forces.

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2012 Sea Air Space Symposium Summary

Sea Air Space

One of the largest gatherings of high-ranking military officials, military analysts, naval analysts, industry experts and government leaders is the annual Sea Air Space Symposium hosted by the Navy League of the United States. Widely recognized as the premier military-industry gathering in the United States, this year’s event, held at the Gaylord Center in National Harbor, Maryland, drew over 15,000 delegates.

Day 1 of this signature event focused on strategy; Day 2 on capabilities and requirements; and Day 3 on the budget. Many of the speakers emphasized the importance of the Defense Strategic Guidance, the Obama Administration’s recently-issued national strategy, and the Fiscal Year 2013 budget priorities. For the Department of Defense and for the United States Navy emphasis will continue to be placed on “capabilities” vs. “capacity” (i.e., ship numbers) and platform and system “wholeness.”

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